LaSER researcher Roberts Kits was a guest on the Strategy Speaks podcast, the official podcast of the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy at Vrije Universiteit Brussel, hosted by Daniel Fiott. During the discussion, Kits presented the key findings of his recent policy report, Towards the Baltic Tiger: Strengthening Defence Cooperation Among the Baltic States, highlighting the need for deeper regional cooperation to strengthen the security and defence capabilities of the Baltic states.
The conversation focused on the unique security challenges facing the Baltic region. Roberts Kits emphasised that the geographical position of the Baltic states creates particular vulnerabilities, noting that Russian airborne forces are stationed approximately 270 kilometres from Latvia’s capital, Riga. In addition to conventional military threats, the region faces a growing range of hybrid challenges, including sabotage, attacks on critical infrastructure, cyber operations, disinformation campaigns, the use of weather balloons, and the instrumentalisation of migration as a tool of hybrid warfare.
Discussing the reasons behind the publication of the report, Kits highlighted that although all three Baltic states plan to allocate 5% of GDP to defence spending from 2026, security cannot be measured only through defence budgets. Due to the relatively small size of the Baltic economies, increased spending alone will not automatically translate into sufficient military capabilities. He noted that long-term security requires greater coordination, joint planning, and more effective use of available resources.
Kits also pointed to lessons from previous economic and security developments. During the 2008 global financial crisis, Latvia and Estonia allocated a similar share of government spending to defence—around 4.5%. However, as Latvia was more severely affected by the crisis, its defence spending as a share of total government expenditure declined to approximately 2.5% by 2014, while Estonia maintained defence spending at around 5%. This example demonstrates the importance of ensuring that defence commitments remain sustainable and resilient over time.
The discussion also addressed opportunities for expanding regional cooperation beyond military spending. Drawing parallels with the Nordic Defence Cooperation (NORDEFCO) vision for 2030, Kits highlighted that the Baltic states could strengthen cooperation in areas such as defence industry development, military mobility, civil defence, and joint capability development. He noted that defence cooperation should not be limited to individual projects but should become a more systematic approach to building regional resilience.
Particular attention was given to the current state of Baltic defence industry cooperation. Although the Baltic states participate in European Defence Fund (EDF) projects, in more than half of these projects involving a Baltic country, no other Baltic state is included. Kits argued that stronger regional coordination mechanisms are needed to ensure that the Baltic defence industries can work together more effectively. Currently, there are eight separate defence industry associations across the three Baltic states, but no umbrella organisation representing the region’s defence industry as a whole.
The podcast also highlighted positive examples of emerging cooperation, including the partnership between Latvian drone manufacturer Origin Robotics and Estonia’s DevSec Intel Solutions, which are jointly developing a technological solution for a drone defence system. Such initiatives demonstrate the potential for regional cooperation between companies and the importance of closer links between defence industries and public institutions.
The discussion concluded with a broader reflection on the balance between national independence and regional cooperation. Roberts Kits emphasised that strengthening cooperation among the Baltic states does not diminish national sovereignty but rather provides an opportunity to increase collective security and ensure more effective responses to future challenges.
The full episode of the Strategy Speaks podcast is available here.